Grain Market Commentary 1/20/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed down 0-1 cent based on lack of fresh news. The Mar26 contract lost 1 cent to close at $4.2375 and the May26 contract closed 3/4th of a cent down at $4.3775.
Soybeans ended the session down 4-5 cents. The market saw modest pressure as the US Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on President Trump’s tariffs, nor provide guidance on timing. The March 2026 contract fell 4.75 cents to close at $10.53, while the May 2026 contract ended at $10.64, down 4.5 cents.
Market Headlines:
US Supreme Court, again, does not issue a ruling on Trump tariffs:
The Supreme Court did issue three rulings today but did not decide on the dispute over the legality of Trump’s tariffs.
Further, the court did not announce the next date that they will release rulings, nor does it announce ahead of time the rulings that will be released on a certain date.
Traders say China has purchased all of the 12 mmt of US soybeans the country agreed to buy:
Reuters reports that China fulfilled the 12 mmt purchase agreement last week following large purchases by the state stockpiler Sinograin and state trader COFCO. These state-owned firms accounted for all of the US soybean purchases, as private Chinese crushers continued to use cheaper supplies from Brazil and Argentina.
It is likely that China may not make additional purchases until the next US harvest season unless US soybean prices fall below those of South American supplies.
GOP senators released additional details on a farm aid package on Friday:
Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman, R-Ark., and Senate Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman John Hoeven, R-N.D., outlined the provisions they are seeking. These include additional bridge payments, expanded assistance for specialty crop farmers, and higher farm loan limits. It is speculated that bridge payments could total $15 billion.
The group aims to finalize the plan quickly due to the January 30 deadline. On that date, funding for several federal agencies expires, raising the possibility of another government shutdown.
China purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October:
A Chinese importer bought the canola in anticipation of a tariff reduction to roughly 15% from the previous 84%. China imposed the higher tariff as part of an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian canola that began in August, which nearly halted shipments and contributed to broader trade tensions between the two countries. In recent months, China sourced canola from Australia due to the elevated tariff on Canadian supplies. This purchase signals a resumption of trade, improves prospects for Canadian farmers, and may reduce Australian sales.
Weekly Export Inspections:
(week ended 1.15.26)
US corn export inspections were 58.4 million bushels, above market expectations of 39.4-55.1 million bushels. Inspections were almost unchanged from the previous week’s 59.2 million bushels and just slightly below last year’s same week of 60.7 million bushels. Cumulative corn export inspections are now 1.178 billion bushels, up 56% from last year’s slow-starting marketing year (note: during the 2024/2025 marketing year corn export inspections rapidly increased and averaged 61.3 million bushels/week from mid-January to late June after a slow start to the marketing year). Top corn export destinations this last week were Mexico, Columbia, and Japan.
US soybean export inspections were 49.1 million bushels. This figure was at the top end of market expectations of 36.7-51.4 million bushels, but down from the previous week’s 58.5 million bushels. Export inspections this last week were above the same week last year of 36.4 million bushels. While export inspections rate has recently increased, cumulative export inspections are still 40% below last year’s same week total of 1.187 billion, at 710 million bushels. Top soybean export destinations this last week were China, Germany, and Mexico.
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