Grain Market Commentary 1/15/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn traded higher through much of the first half of the session but ultimately closed 0–2 cents lower, giving back yesterday’s gains. The Mar26 contract settled 1.75 cents lower at $4.20. The May26 and Jul26 contracts each finished down 2 cents, closing at $4.2775 and $4.34, respectively.
Soybeans finished the session 5–10.5 cents higher, extending yesterday’s recovery. The market drew support from reports that the Trump Administration still intends to mandate significant biodiesel usage in 2026 and 2027. The Mar26 contract gained 10.5 cents to close at $10.53, while the May26 contract ended 9.25 cents higher at $10.6425.
Market Headlines:
Weekly export sales report for the week ended 1.8.26:
Corn sales rebounded from the low totals posted during the prior two holiday-shortened weeks. Sales totaled 44.9 million bushels, falling within market expectations of 23.62–55.12 million bushels. Total 2025/26 export commitments now stand at 2.049 billion bushels, up 29% from the same week last year.
Soybean sales reached 75.8 million bushels, well above market expectations of 29.40–66.14 million bushels. The recent acceleration in sales has pushed total 2025/26 commitments to 1.126 billion bushels, narrowing the year-over-year deficit to 25% from 39% in late November. Total commitments now account for 71.5% of the USDA’s annual export projection.
China imports a record high level of soybeans in 2025:
China imported 11.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, a 6.5% increase from the record set in 2024. Importers increased shipments from South America during the first half of the year to mitigate potential supply chain disruptions tied to the US-China trade war. Prior to the trade truce, China largely avoided purchases of US soybeans. Following the agreement, China resumed buying US soybeans in October.
NOPA soybean crush report:
NOPA reported that its members crushed 225.0 million bushels of soybeans in December. The figure came in within market expectations of 216.6–230.0 million bushels and represents an 8.9% increase from December 2024’s crush of 206.6 million bushels. Nationwide soybean crush in December is estimated near 230 million bushels, compared with 220.5 million bushels in November and 217.7 million bushels in December of last year.
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