Grain Market Commentary 1/14/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn ended the day 1–2.25 cents higher, with the nearby contract leading the way. The Mar26 contract recovered 2.25 cents to close at $4.22, in consolidating trade after Monday’s sharp decline. The contract reached an intraday high of $4.25, representing a 23.6% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday selloff. The May26 contract closed 2 cents higher at $4.2975.
Soybeansclosed 0–4 cents higher on the day. The Mar26 contract gained 3.75 cents to $10.4225, supported by Chinese buying interest. The May26 contract finished 3 cents higher than the prior settle, closing at $10.55.
Market Headlines:
The US Supreme Court was expected to release rulings on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs:
During the hearing, Justices questioned whether the Trump administration exceeded its emergency authority. The court was scheduled to issue rulings on the matter around 10:00 a.m. EST. However, the court did not issue a decision on the legality of the tariffs.
As a result, tariffs remain in place for the time being. Following this development, grains and oilseeds markets experienced some pullback.
The Renewable Fuels Association is urging for legislation to allow year-round E15 sales:
Following the release of the USDA reports on Monday, the Renewable Fuels Association called on lawmakers to pass legislation permitting year-round E15 sales to help balance supply and demand in the corn market. The association’s CEO stated that year-round sales could generate demand for more than 2 million bushels of corn and sorghum.
Weekly EIA Ethanol Data:
(week ended 1.9.26)
US ethanol production for the week was 1.196 million barrels per day, up from the previous week’s 1.098 million barrels per day (mbpd). Production was well above market expectations of 1.088-1.150 mbpd and sets a new weekly production record. This new record clearly beats the previous record of 1.131 mbpd. In addition, production for the last week ran 9.2% higher than the 1.095 mbpd from the same week last year. Over the last 4 weeks, production averaged +2.1% above last year’s same period due to the high production level from this past week.
US ethanol stocks rose again to 24.473 million barrels from the previous week’s 23.652 million barrels. Last week’s stocks were above market expectations of 23-24.175 million barrels but are still below last year’s same week stocks of 1.050 billion gallons.
US ethanol exports (EIA estimated) were 119k barrels per day. Exports were slightly above the previous week’s 113k bpd, a 9-week low. Including the 9-week low, exports over the last four weeks averaged 150k bpd compared to the 130k bpd during the same period last year.
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