Grain Market Commentary 1/13/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn finished 1–6 cents lower on the day, with the Mar26 contract down 1.75 cents. Mar26 closed at $4.1975, remaining above the August low of $4.10. The May26 contract closed at $4.2775, down 2.75 cents.
Soybeans extended losses, closing 9–10 cents lower. The Mar26 contract led the decline, settling at $10.3225, down 10 cents. The May26 contract ended 9.75 cents lower at $10.3875.
Market Headlines:
The American Farm Bureau Federation is urging for addition farm aid:
American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program has provided support but has not fully offset losses farmers have faced in recent years. Duvall said farmers need additional aid, additional trade opportunities, and labor reform. He also supports year-round approval of E15, noting it could help lower fuel costs for consumers.
1.13.26 8am USDA daily sales announcements:
The USDA reported sales of 168,000 metric tons of soybeans to China and 158,000 metric tons of soybeans to Mexico. Both sales are for 2025/26 delivery.
China auctions 1.1 mmt of soybeans:
China held its first grain auction since December 19, selling all 1.1 million metric tons of soybeans offered. The average price was $14.87 per bushel, up from $14.50 per bushel at the previous auction. Since mid-December, China has sold 2 million metric tons of reserve soybeans, and some market participants expect auctions to continue until total sales reach 4 million metric tons.
January USDA Reports:
Across the board, the USDA reports, released on January 12th, were fundamentally negative for corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Corn: US corn ending stocks were estimated at 2,227 million bushels, up 198 million bushels from the previous month and well above the average market expectation for a decline to 1,980 million bushels. The USDA increased production to 17,021 million bushels, an upward revision despite market expectations for a decrease. Contributing to higher production, the US corn yield rose to 186.5 bu/acre from 186, compared with an expected decline of 2 bu/acre. The larger crop also resulted in Dec. 1 US corn stocks coming in well above expectations.
Soybeans: The US soybean balance sheet also saw bearish revisions. The Annual Crop Production report raised production to 4.262 billion bushels, slightly above expectations. Soybean yield was unchanged from November at 53 bu/acre, modestly above the average market estimate of 52.7. Dec. 1 soybean stocks were also slightly higher than expected, and the USDA increased 2025/26 ending stocks to 350 million bushels, compared with expectations of 303 million bushels.
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