Grain Market Commentary 1/12/26
CBOT Pricing:
Corn closed 10-25 cents lower following the release of several key USDA reports, including the January WASDE (read more below). The Mar26 contract led the way down, closing 24.25 cents lower at $4.2175. The May26 contract ended the day at $4.305, 23.25 cents down.
Soybeans also closed lower, finishing 10-14 cents down. The Mar26 contract closed down 13.5 cents at $10.505, 7.25 cents off of the low. The May26 finished at $10.6325, down 12.75 cents.
Market Headlines:
China purchased 10 cargoes of US soybeans last Friday:
Eight cargoes are scheduled to ship from the US Gulf Coast, with the remaining two expected to ship from the Pacific Northwest. Shipments are slated for April and May. In addition, Chinese importers reported several smaller purchases through daily flash sales during the week for March or later shipment. Despite the recent increase in sales activity, traders remain uncertain about whether and when the soybeans will ship.
Brazilian soybean harvest has begun:
Patria AgroNegocios reported that farmers have harvested 0.53% of the soybean crop, slightly ahead of the 0.39% five-year average. Warm and dry weather has prevailed recently and is expected to continue this week across much of the country. Both Conab and the USDA project a record Brazilian soybean crop. Conab estimates production at 177.6 million metric tons, while the USDA forecasts 175 million metric tons.
USDA Crop Production and WASDE report:
At 11:00 am CST the USDA released the Annual Crop Production report, the quarterly Grain Stocks report, the Winter Wheat Seedings report, and the monthly WASDE report.
WASDE report numbers:
Weekly USDA Export Inspections:
(week ended 1.8.26)
US corn export inspections were 58.7 million bushels, at the top of market expectations of 35.4-62.0 million bushels, and up from the previous two holiday weeks of 52 and 52.6 million bushels. Corn export inspections averaged, over the last four weeks, 58.0 million bushels/week. This compares to last year’s same period average of 43.0 million bushels/week. Cumulative inspections are now 1.119 billion bushels, up 61% from last year’s 697 million bushels (note: during the 2024/2025 marketing year corn export inspections rapidly increased and averaged 61.3 million bushels/week from mid-January to late June after a slow start to the marketing year). Top export destinations this week were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.
US soybean export inspections came in at 56.2 million bushels, well above market expectations of 29.4-46.8 million bushels. This was up from the previous week’s 36.2 million bushels and slightly above the same week last year’s 49.9 million bushels. This was the second largest week of the first 19 weeks of the 2025/2026 marketing year. Cumulative export inspections are now 659 million bushels. This is 43% down from the same week last year, but the year-over-year deficit should begin to decline as exports to China are beginning to pick up in earnest. Top export destinations were China, Mexico, Italy, Germany, and the UK.
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