December 18, 2023 Grain Commentary
Market Re-Cap 12/18/23
Beans saw an end of day rally, while corn and wheat traded lower. The typical pattern currently in the market is if soybeans have gains, wheat is struggling, and vice versa. Ongoing issues with Brazil’s weather came after Brazil’s VLI rail operator anticipated a 15% reduction in corn production and a 5% reduction in soybeans to move into their draw territory.
Corn– China imported a record amount of corn in November, up 12% from the previous year. The chart below, with data from the USDA, shows the drastic increase in Chinese buying since 2021. This week’s export inspection volume for corn was at the top of estimates at 37.3 million bushels shipped, making this the 2nd largest week this marketing year. The largest buyers for the week were Mexico, Japan, China, and Columbia.
Beans– Oil was the most considerable support for beans today. Tensions now focused on the Red Sea also supported soy oil. Argentina also announced a possible increased tax on soy oil, moving from 31% to 33% tax. Soybean export inspections rebound after a 2 week slump. The export shipments were also at the top of estimates at 51.9 million bushels moved off the Gulf and PNW. Soybeans for the year are well above the “needed pace” to meet USDA projections.
Wheat– Russia and spots on the Black Sea have been battling with shutdowns due to storms. Russia reaffirmed that they are uninterested in a Grain Deal with Ukraine. The EU’s MARS crop monitor said the cold weather had hurt their winter crops due to lack of snow. Some winter crops in France have gone unplanted, which could shift the spring crop rotations.
The DeLong Co., Inc.